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Wednesday, July 24, 2013

Why Indians will never be a THE GREAT EUROPEAN DREAM......

The Term ‘India‘ was taken up from River Indus where the first settlers established their residence. The river was worshipped by Aryans as Sindhu.
The Number System was first invented in ancient India. Zero was first used by Aryabhatta.
The Decimal System and Place Value System were developed in India in 100 B.C.
Takshila holds distinction of being World’s First University. It was established in 700 BC. More than 10,000 students some of them from far-off countries like China and Japan enrolled in about 60 subjects. It was one of the greatest achievements of Ancient India.
The Earliest School of Medicine Ayurveda was known to mankind. It was consolidated by Charaka some 2500 years ago. Over 2600 years ago Sushruta the father of Surgery conducted Surgeries like Cataract, Fractures, and Rhinoplasty and Brain Surgeries without the use of Anesthesia.
Navigation started in the River Sindu 6000 years ago. Derived from the Sanskrit word Navgatih Ancient Indians excelled in this art. ‘Navy’ word is also derived from Sanskrit word ‘nou’.
Bhaskaracharya calculated the Time Taken by the Earth to Orbit the Sun hundreds of years ago. Guess his calculation done in 5th century- 365.258756484 days.
Budhayana was the First Indian Mathematician (6th century) to calculate the value of ‘pi’ and explained the concept of Pythagorean Theorem. Ancient India is the home of Algebra, Trigonometry and Calculus. Greeks and Romans used the numbers as big as 106 whereas ancient Indians used numbers as big as 10*53 (10 to the power of 53).
Saurashtra is the home of Earliest Reservoir and Dam built for Irrigation. The records of King Rudradaman I of 150 BC show that a beautiful lake called Sudarshana was constructed on the hills of Raivataka during Chandragupta Maurya’s time.
Shataranja or Ashtapada or common Chess Was Invented in India
THE ANCIENT INDIAN CIVILIZATION, CULTURE, SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY AND MANAGEMENT is one of the oldest (almost pioneering system) and begins with prehistoric human activity at Mehrgarh, in present-day Pakistan, and continues through the Indus Valley Civilization to early states and empires. If we can, keenly observe our Science and Technology from our Epics, we can understand, how advanced our systems are in arena of Space, Polar, Nuclear Sciences, Automobile Engineering,Economics, Information Technology, Communications,Physics,Law,Medicine and Surgery ,Astrophysics,Metallurgy  and infrastructure through city planning.
As Indians we never had the unification factor of the European forces to conquer the world  or the dreams of the Oligarchs of the medevial Europe to build a necessarily huge structure that transcends all propositions.We never thought of building Intellectual mazes of wisdom.But if Indians were born Indians it was a long standing destiny to capture the void and then leave the void as if nothing exists.
Though, Indians are philosophical people, our Ancient Indians has made enormous advancements which are far away to understand. 
If we are to understand the value and art of Indianism it is very sorry structure that Indians all over the world go to schools of repute to be taught something which is basically in their genes.
An indians goes to US  to propogate facebook through social network ..
Ha ha a person from a country which still suffers under colonial system of rule...
An architect goes to US to build their houses while a country still reels to provide the minimum threshold of plain drinking water and other imminent supplies.
An IT expert keeps reeling chains of walmart and starbucks while a common indian dies without knowing proper health standards and subjects to live.
Do this people really succeed in being doctrines of their art 
No they just reel under the imperialist regimes twisting an dturning their minds to create something new that will improve their needs of living.
Why  do not they go to seek possibilty they fail likely cause of genetic physchological  syndrome.
An indian will always be religious which may or not be he may seek a divine sect for happiness but will always explore the mind to be happy.An indian will hate confrontation and argument on the possibility of existence of god because he knows that God exists and he tries to prove not confront the actions set on him through the effect of what he sees in himself as God.If physics be the case of confrontations in Indianism , it was closely linked with religion and theology and it even differed from sect to sect. Almost all religions believed that the universe consisted of elements like earth, air, water, and akasa (ether). Most schools maintained that there were as many types of atoms as there were elements.
Indians will never be able to build huge machines or huge marvels because that leads to uncertainity in his mind and his being.An Indian always sees the world as an explorer with a small point of origin  or vortex being the realization of his self.An Indian will never be able to match to Europeans on this issue as oligarchs see the world as an extension of their self which is why they are the best in explaining market strategy ,economic valuations and military accomplishments.For an Indian his mind is his biggest weapon and not the other way round.If nature is the explanation of the world markets ,valuations and accomplishments are the way of living and contributions to the betterment of self.But there are always variations in understanding Self in a form transgressing from the behavior of the getting more and more.It is the 

Tuesday, July 23, 2013

Predicting economic crisis based on physics of the mind



The rarer the pricer or the deadly: If you look at the graph with  the magnitude of earthquakes on the x-axis plotted against the frequency of the earthquakes on the y-axis. You can see that as earthquakes get stronger they get rarer. The way the frequency of earthquakes varies as a function of their size is characterized by an exponent - or a power - of the frequency. The enormously powerful Tohoku and Sumatra earthquakes, more than magnitude 9, are many times less frequent than magnitude 4 earthquakes. The other thing about power-law phenomena is called scale-invariance - otherwise known as fractals. Earthquakes have no characteristic size or scale - so even though large earthquakes are rare they are no different than small earthquakes. Think of a coast line or cauliflower: as you zoom in the patterns will repeat themselves at each scale.Power-law distributions have been found in many phenomena: the sizes of cities for example follows a power-law. In addition to the frequency-size function, there is frequency-rank: which is that the frequency of something is inversely proportional to its rank. For cities the biggest city is about twice the size of the second biggest city, three times the size of the third biggest city, etc. So you have very rare huge cities like New York City, and thousands of small cities with 50,000 or fewer people. This is also known as Zipf's law, who discovered the same pattern for word frequency. The second most common word in a text is half as common as the most common word in a text.
What does all this have to do with extreme income inequality? Well we can see that income inequality follows a power-law, so that people with very large incomes are very rare, and people with very small incomes are very common. These kinds of distributions can arise from what is called self-organized criticality. These are nonlinear systems that manage to stay stable by adapting their internal dynamics in subtle ways to their environments. The idea was introduced using very simple models of this kind of behavior: forest-fires and avalanches in sand piles.
Sand piles are often used to illustrate how self-organized systems stay on the edge of order and disorder, and illustrate the concept of a nonlinear threshold.  Imagine a completely flat surface on which you pour grains of sand at some constant rate. The grains of sand fall randomly to either side of the pile as it builds up. At first the pile is small and so the angle of its slope is very shallow. You can keep adding sand and the pile will just get taller. At a certain point the angle of the pile will become steep enough so that adding more sand causes small avalanches. After a time the angle of the pile and the frequency of the avalanches will converge to form a balance so that the overall shape of the pile is maintained. However, the key to this is that there is an open dissipation of sand running off the pile to compensate for the new sand being poured on to the pile. If you keep adding sand and it cannot dissipate the pile angle will become so steep that when you add just one more grain of sand, it will cause a catastrophic avalanche that flattens the whole pile.
So actually you can estimate how often catastrophic sand pile avalanches will occur based on how often smaller avalanches occur: and crucially you can maybe prevent catastrophic avalanches by causing smaller avalanches.
While I don't have this rigorously worked out because a) I probably couldn't do the math and b) I just thought of all this today after seeing the YouTube video (if someone wants to try I think it would be very interesting): in hazard research for example, small controlled forest fires are used to prevent enormous disastrous fires. If we could, causing small scale earthquakes in critical regions might actually prevent Sumatra or Tohoku-type earthquakes. And just as in the sand pile case in which there are extreme situations where adding only one grain of sand causes a catastrophic avalanche: are we now in such an economic situation of steep inequality teetering on the threshold of a catastrophic event? Where one tiny seemingly insignificant "grain of sand" causes our entire economy to collapse? The super-rich would do well to heed the lessons of nonlinear dynamics and power-law distributions: it might only require them to give up small portions of their wealth to prevent a convulsive social upheaval.
In these situations the stable dynamics of the systems (forest, sand pile, earth's seismic activity, society) are maintained by small crises: small fires, small avalanches, small earthquakes; but catastrophic disasters are no different from these smaller ones. When these systems go too far from this stability they become vulnerable to massive catastrophes: what are called Dragon-Kings. The Tohoku earthquake for example was so powerful that it's even an outlier in a power-law distribution. And likewise: the super-wealthy are so rich they are outliers even in a power-law distribution. So the term dragon-kings serves a nice double-purpose: an apt name for the super-wealthy and the mathematical description of their outlier status. More ominously, dragon-kings can also refer to rare catastrophic events.
 

“While financial crashes, recessions, earthquakes and other extreme events appear chaotic, Didier Sornette’s research is focused on finding out whether they are, in fact, predictable. They may happen often as a surprise, he suggests, but they don’t come out of the blue: the most extreme risks (and gains) are what he calls “dragon kings” that almost always result from a visible drift toward a critical instability. In his hypothesis, this instability has measurable technical and/or socio-economical precursors. As he says: “Crises are not external shocks.”
Stability breeds instability.
1. A type of strategy or mindset becomes prevalent (Momentum, Don’t Fight Fed)
2. The winners become more successful, attracting imitators
3. Crowding in the strategy makes out-performance more difficult, without increasing risk/leverage
4. The stability & low-volatility meltup usher in a new paradigm for risk as VaR models encourage levering (today, selling vol)
An interesting insight that I took away from a recent comparable reading “Forecast” – markets tend to tip into the “unstable” (crash-prone) when:
1. Momentum/Short-term strategies and market participants become increasingly powerful/wealthy and garner a larger share of the market (ownership, volume, etc.)
2. The number of competing strategies shrinks, leading to erosion of profits, or increasingly risky behavior to maintain profits – more leverage, turnover, etc.
3. Let the first domino fall……

Especially troubling is his view that up until the mid 1980’s, GDP growth was the result of real productivity and since then it’s artificial due to the rise of the financial sector. Yet, even he notes, that the longest bubble in the S&P 500 was in the 1955-1975 period. However, he then describes the great crashes the late 1990’s and 2008 as resulting from debt, ignoring that the fall from 1964 to 1968 was as large as the late 90’s fall, and then it kept going, so that the market in 1982 was only 22% of it’s peak, while the post dot-com low was 45% of it’s peak. He doesn’t say what measure of CPI he uses, but I use CPIAUCSL, and with this the all time normalized market highs are around 1958 and 1962 while his figure shows the 1998 peak slightly higher than the earlier ones.
Much of the rest is equally troubling. He constantly uses some measure of debt/gdp or similar, but never takes into consideration that the actual share of economic flows servicing this debt is a small fraction of what it was earlier. And he fails to note that the fluctuations in the actual economy and the markets were large and frequent pre 1980’s.
In Forecast, physicist and acclaimed science writer Mark Buchanan answers these questions and more in a master lesson on a smarter economics, which accepts that markets act much like weather. While centuries of classical financial thought have trained us to understand “the market” as something that always returns to equilibrium, economies work more like our atmosphere — a loose surface balance riding on a deeper torrent of fluctuation. Market instability is as natural — and dangerous — as a prairie twister. With Buchanan’s help, we can better govern the markets and weather their storms.
Any economy operating above the sustenance minimum is unstable. Some version of the fundamental economic equation is always valid, and in fact debt does not appear in it. Even with zero debt, if people save more (spend less), businesses invest less, and government spends less, the economy contracts.
Does Sornettes’s track record of predicting so-called unpredictable events not speak to the value in his work (i.e Chinese equities in 2007, oil in 2008, the Swiss Franc vs. the Euro in 2011 and bitcoin this year)–regardless of his view of debt?

“Games are fundamentally different from decisions made in a neutral environment. To illustrate the point, think of the difference between the decisions of a lumberjack and those of a general. When the lumberjack decides how to chop wood, he does not expect the wood to fight back; his environment is neutral. But when the general tries to cut down the enemy’s army, he must anticipate and overcome resistance to his plans. Like the general, a game player must recognize his interaction with other intelligent and purposive people. His own choice must allow both for conflict and for possibilities for cooperation.
The essence of a game is the interdependence of player strategies. There are two distinct types of strategic interdependence: sequential and simultaneous. In the former the players move in sequence, each aware of the others’ previous actions. In the latter the players act at the same time, each ignorant of the others’ actions.”


Title:
A review of power laws in real life phenomena
Source:
Pinto, Carla. Communications In Nonlinear Science And Numerical Simulation Volume: 17 Issue: 9 (2012-09-01) p. 3558-3578. ISSN: 1007-5704


Title:
Black swans, power laws, and dragon-kings: Earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, landslides, wildfires, floods, and SOC models
Source:
Sachs, M. The European Physical Journal Special Topics Volume: 205 Issue: 1 (2012-05-01) p. 167-182. ISSN: 1951-6355
 

Sunday, July 21, 2013

Where India lags behind China and that to badly

When two equally dominant  patriachs of two neighboring families come and meet over a dinner to discuss the role they played in shaping the ethos of the family;it often ends in strategic moral play and lot of down tones and lively banter.But when the same issues transgresses to the national respect the situation is more the same but the accountability factor of governance comes to play.When we call of India and China to be the issue of contention and who will turn to a bigger superpower the question of morality and ego and equally the question of consistence in continuance comes to play.The shadows of the past  have shown both China and India as the largest empires of rule .If China consists of a eminently strong population of 20% of the entire population India ranks close second in 18%.
But where is the difference between the two.China is rolling ahead in the economic scenario with its avalanche schemes of financial superiority.
That makes us ask will the situation remain the same in the coming years or is it petulance and the strict discipline that the sages taught which will bring us back as a nation of reckoning in Governance sector.
There is a saying with the coming of the British in India and going of the Raj; lord Vishwakarma fled from India to China .The manufacturing sector in China and the realty boom has been going boom boom or gung ho as Chinese firms create new milestone give more credit to US and create a new order.
But where lies the real issues.
If we see modern India, the Indian system keeps  gropling heavily on a coterie of politicians diplomats industrialist filmstars and a few of the mango generation are rendering their weight on the subjective art of Selling and Reselling a brand.
A shah Rukh Khan has to still sell a Raj  or a Dilwale dulhaniya train seen to be recognized for his films.A Cricketer has to still sell and resell his centuries he made to prove he is in the topmost bracket of the elite group.A politician has to still sell and resell godhra riots babri masjid demolition and the whole lot to prove of his competence with someone else...
If that is not all attending a developmental economist lectures may be a test of endurance but having done that with attending a brilliant question and interaction section for Amartya Sens and Jean Dreze An UnCertain glory I got a taste of the apathy Indian civilized executives  have for a nation they lived in for  four thousand years.
India suffers from a multi dimensional poverty index;Even Bangladesh is ahead of Indian states in terms of providing vitamin supplemets for the young.Where bangaldesh is at 81% India ia weak at 18%.Less than 40% can read a paragraph.Kerala has unique social indicators.In the modern scenario Chattisgarh Orissa and Madhya Pradesh came up with ICDS schemes for children.Himachal Pradesh has seen an excellent turnover with primary education.Gujarat and Rajasthan model has succeded a few places but baring this the rest is like a dead tomb of self eulogizing babus and dictats.Universal health care and Primary health security bill needs to be followed in every state and needs conditional optimization.
We need aggressive and an intrusive agricultural marketting scenario.This is one sector which will lead the rest of the beehive  to thrive.The question still remains whether a China can consider us as contender in their own game or as as the same old pyajama ka naara which holds everything in place because it was made to be like that.China will have a lot to answer in English if they destroy us.So let the superpowers scratch what they do not want to hurt.

But the biggest problem in Indian politics lies we sell and resell Indian  tradition through our filmy drama  and not through products which speak of our endurance of earning the independence and the constitution we have after generations of toil.
China is going steadfast of distribution and redistribution.The entire ghost cities like Ordos in inner mongolia and the whole lot  built replete with skyscrapers, shopping malls, highways, parks and other facilities, but which are entirely empty of people.This may be the way of the dragon but the  process of redistributon of static property like land and place has already started before it has been thought by the future world.
Is there a way forward for India stop appeasing the centuries old behavior of selling and reselling we used to sell the idea that India was at the forefront of studies in foreign affairs; agriculture; medicine and sanitation are some of the ideas we get studying the cities of Indus valley.This needs to believed again and then promoted by Indians.

According to Mathew McCartney director of contemporary south Asian studies at Britain's Oxford UniversityIndia cannot compete with China's 'efficient' system of corruption, a British academic told a conference in Brussels. was there to document the debatePublicServiceEurope.com
While both countries suffer from high levels of corruption, China's one party system has a "more efficient" business-friendly system for paying backhanders. In India, on the other hand, corruption is "unpredictable" and is seen as more of a tax on investment -
"The strong centralised Communist Party has efficiently organised corruption," McCartney said. Large-scale infrastructure projects such as dams are simply forced through in China whereas the Indian government struggles to push past "populist, fragmented" interest groups. "For all developed countries, democracy and property rights have been a product of economic development - not a pre-condition," McCartney said.

India's strong democratic institutions were likely to be a "handicap" to future growth rather than a boost, he predicted. "Good democracies emerge as a consequence of development," he said. "If you look at the statistics you will see that it is difficult to find a link between democracy and growth." Rather than plough money into democracy in under-developed nations such as Afghanistan and Iraq, the international community would do better to investment in other areas - such as the education of girls, he suggested.

Historically speaking, countries that have experienced large leaps forward in economic terms have not been particularly democratic at the time - he pointed out. As an example he took the United Kingdom of the 1830s, when the industrial revolution was in full swing. At the time, only 1 per cent to 2 per cent of the population had the right to vote. His comments led a former official of the European External Action Service, the European Union's diplomatic corps, to wonder out loud if Europe was not "too democratic" to achieve its growth goals. Does the EU need a dictatorship to redress its downward spiral?

"I hate hearing democracy knocked," retorted Naina Lal Kidwai, president of the federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry. What was important was a "combination of democracy and leadership", she said. "What we have to knock is coalition governments not democracy per se."

Talking at the conference interval, McCartney told PublicServiceEurope.com that despite his presentation he was a "big fan of democracy". Governance by the people was however more likely to "stick" in countries that had achieved a certain level of per capita income, he said, citing statistical research going back more than 200 years. Countries can swing between democracy and dictatorship almost at random, he maintained. Democracies can be found in poor countries and rich countries, but they are more likely to be enduring in wealthy countries.